Monday, January 19, 2004


John Kerry is going to win the Iowa Caucus. When he does, it will be described as one of the most stunning comebacks in presidential campaign history, and rightly so. Plainly speaking, Kerry was down and out just a few months ago. His campaign was floundering and staff members were being fired at a rapid clip. However, slowly but surely Kerry's tortoise has over taken Howard Dean's hare.

Kerry's victory will be greeted with Dean's collapse as evidence his campaign was a flash in the pan. But, there wasn't much flash after all. Dean surged to the lead because only the most partisan Bush-hating Democrats were paying attention to the campaign in the early going. Kerry was the presumptive front runner because the Washington media tends to annoint that distinction upon the politicians they cover. When Dean took the lead and Kerry disappeared the Beltway media immediately pronounced Kerry as all but dead.

However, what has happened is that the Democratic rank and file have started to pay attention. Consequently, Kerry has finally fulfilled the premature pronouncements of his front runner status. Kerry's measured, methodical speaking and campaign style provides a good contrast with Dean's angry, bombastic demeanor. Moderate and traditional Democrats might not like George W Bush either, but they want their candidate to act presidential.

Dean has captured the angry, loud voters. Kery will get the most voters and win Iowa.


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