Thursday, May 27, 2004


40% of Democrats and 42% of Independents think that the type of behavior at Abu Ghraib is widespread among those guarding Iraqi prisoners - So much for supporting the troops!

McCain is not going to run with Kerry. So, as long as this far-fetched idea is talked about, Democrats will be underwhelmed by John Kerry's eventual pick.

John Kerry, according to CBS News, has a sizable lead over President Bush. Even though the economy is quite good and the Iraq "occupation" is about to enter a new phase, the Bush campaign team is not going to get any help from the media. The Bush team has to do a better job of reminding Americans about the President's accomplishments (remember those great tax cuts?) President Bush has to take his message directly to the American people. By constantly informing, reminding and highlighting the successes that we have accomplished as a country, George Bush should rise in the polls.

Of course, the CBS News poll has skewed results. Out of the Total Weighted Respondents, 30% are Republicans and 36% are Democrats.

Here are some observations. . .
1) Kerry and Bush have similar favorable ratings with Independents. However, Kerry has higher undecideds (29%) and Bush has higher Unfavorables (51%). It's important that he change both of those numbers in his favor.

2) Bush has stronger support with his voters than Kerry does. 57% of Bush voters strongly support him, while only 29% strongly support Kerry.

3) 25% of Independents think the country is on the right track. 68% think the country is on the wrong track. The Galvin Opinion has shown before how Bill Clinton faced similar numbers, at the same stage of this election, in 1996. You may see analysis of "right track/wrong track" questions in 1996 and 2004, right here.

4) Democrats are not as well informed on the Iraqi prison scandal. The Defense Department opened up an investigation, months ago, as soon as it discovered the abuses and Pentagon officials discussed the case with reporters before it went public. Despite those facts, 67% of Democrats thought that the Pentagon tried to cover up reports of abuse instead of investigating as quickly as possible.

In conclusion, the Bush team must realize it can not assume that the President's good will, accomplishments and pleasant demeanor are getting through to the American people on their own. Instead, the Bush campaign team has to be more aggressive in advancing the President's agenda. By at least running better commercials that consistently tout Bush's great record, the American people will begin to see, and be reminded of, what has long been ignored in the media.

CBS News: McCain/Kerry ticket a winner
CBS News: Poll: Iraq taking toll on Bush
CBS News Poll: Click here to see the complete questions and responses to this CBS News poll.

Previous Poll Analysis at The Galvin Opinion. . .
THE SNOB FACTOR: CBSNews/NYTimes Hide Kerry's Troublesome Poll Numbers

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  • Update: People are talking about polls that are talking about people; Evangelical Outpost, Oliver Willis, Political Wire


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