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Wednesday, August 25, 2004


CBS News CBS Poll Kerry And Bush ThisClose  

Bush leads among veterans, 55% - 37% and Kerry has lost post-convention bounce

Last week's CBS News Poll has Senator John Kerry with the slightest of leads over President Bush. With a 46%-45% outcome, the poll is a virtual tie.

The poll does reveal that Senator Kerry lost his post-convention bounce within a matter of weeks. Just after the Democratic convention Kerry had a five-point lead over Bush, 48 percent to 43 percent, with Nader receiving 3 percent.

NOW
46% KERRY
45% BUSH

POST-CONVENTION
48% KERRY
43% BUSH


Both candidates are receiving strong support from members of their own party. Bush has ardent supporters who are very much in favor of him. While Kerry supporters are less enthusiastic about their man, they dislike Bush enough to counter the Bush support.

Therefore, the independent vote is very important and Bush has made strides with independents according to the CBS poll.

INDEPENDENTS (NOW)
44% KERRY
39% BUSH

INDEPENDENTS (POST-CONVENTION)
50% KERRY
33% BUSH


The most fascinating of the poll's "internal" aspects was the erosion of support for Kerry among veterans. The Democratic convention in Boston was tailor made to make Kerry the veterans candidate. By singlemindedly focusing on Kerry's Vietnam experience (and excluding his political achievements) the Democrats thought they could shake President Bush's lead in the polls on terror related issues. However, Kerry's campaign turned into a one trick pony and started to suffer as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth turned on him with their August advertisements.

VETERANS (NOW)
37% KERRY
55% BUSH

VETERANS (POST-CONVENTION)
46% KERRY
46% BUSH


Here are more interesting facts from the CBS Poll
15% of Democrats and 25% of independents are undecided when it comes to having a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kerry. (6% of GOP's and 19% respectively, for Bush).

59% of Bush voters are enthusiastically supporting him, 44% of Kerry supporters are entusiastically supporting him.

39% believe that the country is on the right track (Bush should have taken my advice and followed the 1996 Clinton model in which he spent that summer convincing voters that the country was on the right track).

34% of independents approve and 52% disapprove of the way the president is handling the economy. Bush must do a better job of highlighting how the economic numbers are comparable to 1996's and are very good in light of an inherited recession made worse by 9/11 and followed by the War on Terror.


Here are the full CBS News poll results

Article: CBS News: CBS Poll, Kerry And Bush Are ThisClose

Update: More opinions here... Crooow Blog, King of Fools, Nap Room, Sandwich Shop, and Petrified Truth.

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