Monday, October 25, 2004


Honolulu Star-Bulletin Hawaii News: Bush takes lead in Hawaii poll

John Kerry has another "blue state" to defend. President Bush is now the leader of 2 polls surveying the state of Hawaii. Both the Honolulu Advertiser and Star-Bulletin/KITV polls have Bush with a one percent lead.

Al Gore won the state of Hawaii by 67,441 votes, an 18.33% difference over George W. Bush.

Hawaii, 2000
Gore 205,286 55.79%
Bush 137,845 37.46%

Hawaii, 2004 10/13-10/18
Kerry 42.6%
Bush 43.3%

"President Bush is now ahead of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, according to a new statewide Star-Bulletin and KITV 4 News poll.

The numbers show a shift in Hawaii voters towards the Republican president. The new poll of 612 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the election has Bush with a one percent lead. In August, Kerry was leading by seven percentage points.

Until this poll, Hawaii has been considered to be a a solid, strong bastion for Kerry and the Democrats because only twice in Hawaii's state history has it voted for a Republican. But Hawaii has always voted for the incumbent president who wins a second term. Hawaii voted for Richard Nixon's second term, Ronald Reagan's second term and Bill Clinton's second term. Hawaii has four electoral votes.

In the 2000 presidential race, Hawaii was a strong Democratic state and Bush had only 37 percent of the vote.

Bush is winning 51 percent of the male vote in Hawaii, while Kerry is picking up 47 percent of the female vote. Bush also leads with more than half of the vote among those 35 to 44 and those 55 to 64. Kerry is strongest in Hawaii with younger voters. He has 60 percent of those 18 to 24 and 54 percent of those 25 to 34.

According to the poll's breakdown along ethnic lines, Caucasians equally support Bush and Kerry. But, Filipino-American voters are overwhelmingly in support of Bush, by a 56 to 36 percent margin. Half of Japanese-American voters support Kerry, while more than half of the Hawaiian and part-Hawaiian voters support Bush.

Gov. Linda Lingle, the titular head of the Hawaii GOP, said Hawaii voters are responding to Bush's strong image as a wartime leader."

The Galvin Opinion: Friday, Oct 22- Hawaii: A Swing State?


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