Sunday, November 07, 2004


New York turned a shade of red in last week's election

New Yorkers are depressed right now. You've read in the newspapers how they are upset about President Bush's re-election. I've seen the looks on people's faces as they trudge around the City with a collective frown. Wednesday morning was a surreal one for John Kerry's voters. Upper West Side liberals spat out their coffee when they saw the New York Times banner headline announcing Bush's big night - it wasn't a nightmare, after all. Downtown, the professional protesters, embittered artists, satirists, art gallery owners, and cartoonists didn't know what to do with their collections of Bush photos laced with Hitler mustaches. Saddam Hussein can not be set free for at least another four years, you know. That's the New York we've been hearing about the last week. I've seen it for myself, it's definitely there.

However, New York City possesses a sinister, deep and dark secret. There is something else lurking in shadows scattered throughout the 5 boroughs. If you listen closely, you can hear the whispers and sometimes it even sounds like restrained glee. Tourists do not know anything about this secret because the locals have done a good job of shielding the bad and seedy side of this crystal-blue city. I am going to let you in on the secret because New York has to face its demons whether or not it is wallowing in a collective Gotham funk.

There are Republicans in New York. Shhh, not so loud! Okay, not close to a majority, but the GOP is not an endangered species like the do-do bird is in Central Park. The fact is that 544,359 votes were cast for President Bush in New York City. That is more than votes cast for Bush in the entire states of Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming. Those 10 states accounted for 39 electoral votes.

Democrats have said that since New York City was hit hardest by 9/11 that Americans should notice how New York voted for President. Indeed, by looking at the election results from 2000 and 2004 you will notice that Bush INCREASED his vote percentage in New York City and the New York suburbs that are in immediate proximity to the city.

Dubya's popular vote improvement in the New York City area must not be ignored. Trying as hard as they can, New Yorkers can no longer hide their shameful secret.

Gore 86.3% 265,801
Bush 11.8% 36,245

Kerry 82.3% 260,438
Bush 16.7% 52,752

Gore 80.6% 497,468
Bush 15.7% 96,605

Kerry 74.1% 468,403
Bush 24.8% 156,612

Gore 79.8% 449,300
Bush 14.2% 79,921

Kerry 81.7% 468,841
Bush 16.6% 95,362

Gore 75.0% 416,967
Bush 22.0% 122,052

Kerry 70.8% 393,482
Bush 28.0% 155,363

Staten Island
Gore 51.9% 73,828
Bush 45.0% 63,903

Kerry 42.1% 62,603
Bush 56.7% 84,270

Gore 57.9% 341,610
Bush 38.5% 226,954

Kerry 52.2% 312,388
Bush 46.6% 278,727

Gore 53.4% 306,306
Bush 42.0% 240,992

Kerry 49.0% 303,375
Bush 48.7% 301,710

Gore 58.6% 218,010
Bush 37.5% 139,278

Kerry 57.8% 199,649
Bush 40.6% 140,282

New York City 2000: 398,726
New York City 2004: 544,359
Difference: +145,633

NY Suburbs 2000: 607,224
NY Suburbs 2004: 720,719
Difference: +113,495

New York City 2000: 1,703,364
New York City 2004: 1,653,767
Difference: -49,597

NY Suburbs 2000: 865,926
NY Suburbs 2004: 815,412
Difference: -50,514

Bush dramatically increased his vote total in the New York metropolitan area. John Kerry did not even garner as many votes that Al Gore did despite the diminished presence of Ralph Nader. Bush increased his vote total in all 8 counties. Kerry suffered a net loss from 2000 in all 8 counties except for Manhattan (Ralph Nader got 5.5% of the Manhattan vote in 2000 but about 1% in 2004, helping Kerry get a slight bump).

Conventional wisdom was that Bush would lose the New York vote by an even wider margin than he did in 2000 because New Yorkers feel that they are less safe due to the president's foreign policy. The perception is that Bush alienated our allies and emboldened terrorists. Thus, liberals claim Bush made New York City an even richer target for a devastating attack.

But, the numbers don't lie. Bush increased his support in New York City and its suburbs. These are the voters who live, work and raise their families in New York. The fact is that Bush is more popular in the area that was hardest hit by the September 11 attacks.

Liberal New Yorkers like to blame the red states, evangelical Christians, and "dumb hicks" for helping Bush retain the White House. But, it was Americans of all stripes, from Alaska to Kansas to Brooklyn, who supported President Bush in larger numbers than they did 4 years ago. The truth is that the chattering class liberals are not only out of touch with America's heartland but they are just as clueless about their own neighbors in New York City and its suburbs.

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Source: You can find results from all election results from the excellent and indispensable website, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, at http://www.uselectionatlas.org/

Update: New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut: The Suburbs are Blue With a Touch of Red has further analysis of the following counties; Rockland, Orange, Putnam (N.Y.); Bergen, Hudson, Essex, Passaic, Morris, Union (N.J.); Fairfield, Litchfield, New Haven (CT). Bush enjoyed wider support in all 12 of these counties while Kerry did not do as well as Gore.


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