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Thursday, January 29, 2004


THE RATIONAL DEMOCRAT VOTER? 

During the course of the 2 weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, many television, internet, print, radio and armchair pundits were scrambling to find out the hidden reasons why likely voters were picking and choosing the candidates. Voters were asked many follow-up questions over whether they were liberal or moderate, hated or tolerated Bush, were for or against the Iraq war, and preferred a candidate who mirrored their stance on issues or was considered the most electable.

However, polling data reveals the one common theme overlooked or ignored by the so-called experts. The voters of New Hampshire turned out to be lemmings who only followed the lead of media coverage, “conventional wisdom” and breaking news to make their decisions. Voters, overwhelmingly, did not base their decisions on a candidate’s message, views, platform and philosophy. Whichever candidate was at the receiving end of negative publicity suffered while the candidate who was basking in the warm glow of a media love-fest was the darling with voters. Therefore, the unfortunate timing for Dean and the exact opposite for Kerry created the Iowa outcome. The resulting tidal wave of positive press for the winner, Kerry, created a complete transformation of the New Hampshire polls, overnight. Why did New Hampshire voters completely abandon Dean for Kerry? Certainly it wasn’t because thousands of New Hampshire voters dusted off their Kerry brochures and surfed his website only to find themselves converted. The simple fact was that New Hampshire voters went with the winner, pure and simple. For a state long considered, described as and proud to consider itself “independent” New Hampshire was amazingly conformist when it came to falling in line regarding Kerry and Dean. In fact, recent polls in other states like Arizona, Oklahoma and South Carolina indicate that voters are, for the most part, doing the same thing as New Hampshire.

July 2003, American Research Group, New Hampshire Poll
The more well-known Senator Kerry led Howard Dean

Kerry 25%
Dean 19%


December 2003, American Research Group, New Hampshire Poll
Dean rides favorable press about his internet campaign way past Kerry suffering from negative press about his campaign staff and personnel infighting. The same electorate radically shifts their support, despite differences in Dean and Kerry’s points of view.

Kerry 13%
Dean 45%


January 3 2004, American Research Group, New Hampshire Poll
Dean continues his stranglehold on New Hampshire throughout the month of December and even into JANUARY. On January 3rd, (2 weeks before Iowa and 3 weeks before the primary) Dean has a huge 25 point lead. (All other candidates except for Edwards are already at the levels where they end up at election night)

Kerry 14%
Dean 39%


January 10 2004, American Research Group, New Hampshire Poll
Clark has made some headway and is up to 20 percent but otherwise, Dean and Kerry are basically at the same levels. Just one week before Iowa, 17 DAYS before the primary Dean is in full control. You would think his anti-war, health-care for all, raised taxes for all is resonating, right?

Kerry 10%
Dean 35%


January 17 2004, American Research Group, New Hampshire Poll
Dean starts to slip in the NH polls. However, he isn’t losing to an ideological rival, nor a similar like-minded candidate, but instead loses a few points to each of the major contenders (undecided numbers remain the same). Dean gets bad press from Iowa and that is why he is losing voters. They scatter to other candidates, evidence of a lack of concrete reasons why they moved to Kerry, Edwards, Clark. (Clark is at 20%)

Kerry 19%
Dean 28%


January 19 2004, American Research Group, New Hampshire Poll
January 19 is the day of the Iowa caucuses. On this day, Dean has still maintained his NH lead in THE LAST 3 DAY TRACKING POLL BEFORE THE IOWA RESULTS ARE KNOWN. To date, there has been no discernible Kerry positive press, or earth shattering Kerry campaign policy announcements in the past several weeks.

Kerry 20%
Dean 28%


January 22 2004, American Research Group, New Hampshire Poll
The KERRY EARTHQUAKE has occurred in Iowa. The tidal wave of positive media coverage for Kerry makes it all the way to New Hampshire. The negative press about Dean and his “Scream Speech” is played over and over again. The tracking poll of January 20-22 was the FIRST poll taken ENTIRELY AFTER IOWA.

New Hampshire voters flock to the Iowa winner.

Kerry 31%
Dean 18%



Similar indicators and observations for AZ, OK and SC posted later.

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