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Saturday, October 23, 2004


POLL UPDATE: BUSH UP BY 5 POINTS IN TIME MAGAZINE POLL 

Bush 51, Kerry 46 among likely voters - Bush up by 7 with registered voters


US President George W. Bush waves to the 55,000 supporters inside Alltell Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida during a campaign rally on Saturday


ANALYSIS:
President Bush leads John Kerry 51-46 in a Time Magazine poll of likely voters. He enjoys a 50-43 lead with the poll's registered voters.

Bush enjoys a wide lead on questions about moral values, Iraq, war on terror, strong leadership, taxes, and being commander-in-chief. He enjoys a positive job approval rating. Bush has a much higher favorability rating than Kerry even though their unfavorables are exactly the same. He is more trusted than Kerry to handle the issue of weapons of mass destruction. Bush is given a slightly positive approval on his handling of Iraq AFTER the invasion.

Kerry does better than Bush in only a few questions and when he does, his leads are narrow. While Kerry is losing badly among men, he is tied with Bush among women. Kerry has small leads on questions about health care and understanding people's needs. Kerry is behind on all other questions.

When it comes to the economy, Bush edges Kerry by one point.

POLL'S INTERNAL NUMBERS:

Registered MALE Voters
BUSH 54
KERRY 39

Registered FEMALE Voters
BUSH 46
KERRY 46

Which candidate, Kerry or Bush, do you trust more to handle each of the following
areas?
BASE: Registered Voters

1) The Economy
BUSH 46
KERRY 45

2) Moral values issues, such as gay marriage and abortion
BUSH 50
KERRY 39

3) Health Care
BUSH 42
KERRY 46

4) The situation in Iraq
BUSH 51
KERRY 41

5) The war on terrorism
BUSH 56
KERRY 37

6) Understanding the needs of people like yourself
BUSH 44
KERRY 46

7) Providing strong leadership in difficult times
BUSH 54
KERRY 38

8) Tax Policy
BUSH 48
KERRY 41

9) Being Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces
BUSH 52
KERRY 40

Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of...
BASE: Registered Voters

1) John Kerry
FAVORABLE 45
UNFAVORABLE 42

2) George W. Bush
FAVORABLE 51
UNFAVORABLE 42

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his
job as president?
BASE: Registered Voters

APPROVE 53
DISAPPROVE 44

Which candidate do you trust more to handle each of the following areas? PREVENT THE
SPREAD OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

BUSH 53
KERRY 37

Regardless of which candidate you support, do you approve or disapprove of the job
President Bush and his administration has done in managing Iraq after the invasion?

APPROVE 50
DISAPPROVE 46

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone October19-21, 2004 among a random sample of 1,200 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,059 reported registered voters and 803 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentagepoints. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

Likely voters reported party identifications are: 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, 23% Independents.
Registered voters party affiliations are: 35% Democrat, 33% Republican, 23% Independent.


Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found here.


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